In light of Pfizer’s stunning admission — never testing for transmission for they “had to really move at the speed of science,” let’s take a trip down memory lane on how the “experts” got it all wrong.
Dr. Fauci
May 17, 2021
When people are vaccinated, they can feel safe that they are not going to get infected.
Oh, Tony. How many times have you been infected with COVID, and how many boosters did you take? We can feel safe that nothing you say is true.
Joe Biden
July 21, 2021
You’re okay. You’re not gonna — you’re not gonna get COVID if you have these vaccinations.
From the guy who always seems to be lost. No surprise he got it wrong here.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky
March 29, 2021
Our data from the CDC today suggests, you know, that vaccinated people do not carry the virus — don’t get sick. And that it’s not just in the clinical trials but it’s also in real-world data.
If you get vaccinated, that vaccine will basically prevent you from getting sick with COVID. It will prevent you from having to go to the hospital with COVID symptoms. It will prevent you from dying from COVID. Great. Good for you.
Not good for you — because Rachel struck out, 0 for 3! All these claims are untrue.
What this means is that we can get there with vaccines. Instead of the virus being able to hop from person to person to person, potentially mutating and becoming more virulent and drug-resistant along the way — now, we know that the vaccines work well enough that the virus STOPS with every vaccinated person. A vaccinated person gets exposed to the virus; the virus does not infect them; the virus cannot then use that person to go anywhere else. It cannot use a vaccinated person as a host to go get more people.
This is probably the most long-winded stretch of continuous falsehoods in TV history. Who gave a political pundit so much authority to spread medical misinformation?! Irresponsible, MSNBC! And where were the fact-checkers on this one?
Bill Gates
January 28, 2021
Everyone who takes the vaccine is not just protecting themselves but reducing their transmission to other people and allowing society to get back to normal.
Ah, Bill Gates, a guy with literal manboobs and no medical degree pretending to be a professional in public health. And what’s up with him always tucking his hands in his armpits? He must do it when he lies. And his hands are up in his armpits all the time.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla
Early to Mid 2021
We have a lot of indicators right now that are telling us that there is a protection against transmission of the disease.
Did any of those indicators include tests? It turns out — nope!
May 4, 2021
There is no variant that we can identify that escapes the protection of our vaccine.
Why did the media give this guy so much airtime? He’s the CEO of Pfizer — of course, he’s going to only speak well about his product! And no surprise he got it wrong, too.
Let’s give our so-called experts a few rounds of tomatoes and pies in the face.
Because they’re still out there giving terrible public health advice. So, if you ever want some REAL information to stay healthy, listen to them, do the opposite, and you’ll probably be fine.
An upstate New York judge ruled that citing fear of catching COVID-19 is no longer a valid excuse to continue thwarting the state’s election law regarding absentee ballots.
Saratoga County Supreme Court Justice Dianne Freestone, ordered local election boards to stop counting absentee ballots they’ve already received. Freestone directed the election officials to preserve the absentee ballots until after Election Day, November 8, or after a Republican lawsuit is resolved.
Her ruling did not invalidate ballots already mailed, according to a Fox News report.
New York’s Republican and Conservative parties, along with many like-minded officials, filed a legal challenge in Saratoga County’s Supreme Court one year after a proposed state constitutional amendment allowing no-excuse absentee voting was rejected by voters.
The plaintiffs asked the court to rule Chapter 763 of 2021 state laws and Chapter 2 of the state’s 2022 laws unconstitutional, further arguing Chapter 763 conflicts with other existing state statutes.
Republicans claim Chapter 2, which authorizes absentee voting on the basis of fearing COVID-19, violates the state Constitution.
Freestone ruled in favor of the Republican and Conservative plaintiffs, declaring the Election Law changes challenged in the lawsuit violate New York’s Constitution.
The state legislature “appears poised to continue the expanded absentee voting provisions of New York State Election Law … in an Orwellian perpetual state of health emergency and cloaked in the veneer of ‘voter enfranchisement,’” Freestone wrote Friday in her ruling.
Democrats, who control both houses of New York’s legislature, have said their Election Law changes regarding absentee ballots were both for safety and to enable early counting of them.
Republicans gleefully greeted news of the favorable ruling, which comes just two weeks before Election Day.
“What we object to is mass mailing of paper ballots when they are not necessary,” NYS Assemblyman Robert Smullen told Schenectady, NY-based WRGB. “Look, the president of the United States has said the COVID-19 pandemic is over.” Smullen is one of the plaintiffs who brought the legal action.
You might not know her name, but you’ve probably seen the video that made her famous. In 1973, actress and activist Sacheen Littlefeather took the stage at the Oscars dressed in a beaded buckskin dress in place of Marlon Brando, after he was awarded Best Actor for his role as Vito Corleone in “The Godfather.” Claiming Apache heritage, she spoke eloquently, to a backdrop of boos, of the mistreatment of Native Americans by the film industry and beyond.
The blowback was swift and brutal.
Presenters ridiculed her during the broadcast. She told reporters that John Wayne had to be held back by six security guards to prevent him from rushing the stage and assaulting her. In taped interviews this year with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences shortly before her death, Littlefeather said that going onstage that night led to her being blacklisted from the entertainment business.
As the decades passed, however, the calm dignity with which she conducted herself that night, easily viewable on Youtube, won over many critics. And interviews she gave in the intervening years, describing a childhood of poverty growing up in a shack, where she and her white mother were victims of domestic abuse and violence by her White Mountain Apache and Yaqui Indian father, made her story a sympathetic one. As such, she enjoyed incredible public support when it was announced months ago that the Academy would finally apologize to her after nearly 50 years.
The death of the “Apache activist and actress,” as she was described in her New York Timesobituary earlier this month and in thousands of articles over the years, was mourned widely and uncritically.
In one of her final interviews, Littlefeather told The Chronicle that she took the stage at the Oscars because “I spoke my heart, not for me, myself, as an Indian woman but for we and us, for all Indian people … I had to speak the truth. Whether or not it was accepted, it had to be spoken on behalf of Native people.”
But Littlefeather didn’t tell the truth that night. That’s because, according to her biological sisters, Rosalind Cruz and Trudy Orlandi, Littlefeather isn’t Native at all.
“It’s a lie,” Orlandi told me in an exclusive interview. “My father was who he was. His family came from Mexico. And my dad was born in Oxnard.”
“It is a fraud,” Cruz agreed. “It’s disgusting to the heritage of the tribal people. And it’s just … insulting to my parents.”
Littlefeather’s sisters both said in separate interviews that they have no known Native American/American Indian ancestry. They identified as “Spanish” on their father’s side and insisted their family had no claims to a tribal identity.
“I mean, you’re not gonna be a Mexican American princess,” Orlandi said of her sister’s adoption of a fraudulent identity. “You’re gonna be an American Indian princess. It was more prestigious to be an American Indian than it was to be Hispanic in her mind.”
The sisters reached out to tell me their story because, for some time, I have been compiling a public list of alleged “Pretendians” — non-Native people who I or other Native American people suspect or proved to have manufactured their Native identities for personal gain. Littlefeather was among them.
I put the list together in January 2021, after the New York Times published an opinion article by Claudia Lawrence to mark the nomination of Rep. Deb Haaland, D-N.M., a Laguna Pueblo tribal member, to be secretary of the interior. Lawrence falsely claimed her late husband’s tribal identity and stole a historical moment for Native women by mimicking a Native woman’s perspective as she talked down to the interior secretary in the country’s paper of record. I found this infuriating and began compiling a list that generations of Native people have been building since the 1960s to unmask ethnic frauds.
Littlefeather caught my eye.
Her claim to White Mountain Apache heritage, a federally recognized tribe in Arizona with official enrollment policies and a long history of isolation from Spanish colonialism, was especially curious. Littlefeather was born in Salinas, the hometown of “Grapes of Wrath” author John Steinbeck, under the name Maria Louise Cruz in 1946. Her parents were Manuel Ybarra Cruz and Gertrude Barnitz. My review of her father’s side of the family tree, where she claimed her Native heritage, found no documented ties between his extended family and any extant Native American nations in the United States.
I did, however, find family records in Mexico going back to 1850. Marriage and baptismal records do not place the Cruz or Ybarra families near White Mountain Apache territory in Arizona — and they weren’t near Yaqui communities in Mexico, either. Instead, the Cruz line goes to a village that is now part of Mexico City. Mexican Catholic baptismal records and U.S. military registration cards from World War I and World War II of the Ybarra men (their grandmother’s brothers) place distant family in Pima/O’odham (formerly Papago) tribal territory in Sonora, Mexico. However, Brian Haley, a scholar of California and Sonoran tribes, told me that these are communities where tribal members would have been a distinct minority.
All of the family’s cousins, great-aunts, uncles and grandparents going back to about 1880 (when their direct ancestors crossed the border from Mexico) identified as white, Caucasian and Mexican on key legal documents in the United States. None of their relatives married anyone who identified as Native American or American Indian. All of their spouses also identified as either white, Caucasian or Mexican. White Mountain Apache tribal officials I spoke with told me they found no record of either Littlefeather or her family members, living or dead, being enrolled in the White Mountain Apache.
A review of five decades of media reports about Littlefeather showed that her claims of affiliation with the White Mountain Apache began after she was a student at San Jose State in the late 1960s and local Bay Area news outlets reported on her burgeoning modeling career. On Jan. 14, 1971, the Oakland Tribune published a photo of her and identified her as Sacheen Littlefeather. A few days later, KRON news filmed a short modeling video of her wearing Native-inspired outfits. And on March 28, 1971, the San Francisco Examiner featured a photo of her with Cheri Nordwall, an Ojibwe/Shoshone activist, where Littlefeather is described as “White Mountain Apache.” In the decades following, she also claimed to be of Yaqui descent. There is one federally recognized Pascua Yaqui tribe in Arizona, but she never claimed that tribe specifically.
The sisters told me that their family never claimed this heritage growing up. After hearing her sister’s stories, Cruz checked with White Mountain Apache authorities to see if she or anyone in her family were members of the tribe. She says no enrollment records were found. The sisters also assert that Littlefeather’s stories about their violent and impoverished upbringing were also patently false.
On Dec. 6, 1974, the Berkeley Gazette quoted Littlefeather calling herself “an urban Indian.”
“Never saw a reservation till I was 17,” she said. “I lived in a shack in Salinas, Cal. I remember the day we got a toilet, and I brought the neighborhood kids in and gave them the tour.”
“That infuriates me,” her sister Orlandi said when told of the quote. “Our house had a toilet … And it’s not a shack, OK, I have pictures of it. Of course, we had a toilet.”
Both sisters insist that their primary goal in coming forward is to restore the truth about their parents, who they said were good, hard-working and caring people.
They both insisted that Littlefeather assumed the life story of their father, who in no way resembled her characterization of a violent Apache alcoholic who terrorized them and their white mother.
“My father was deaf and he had lost his hearing at 9 years old through meningitis,” Cruz said. “He was born into poverty. His father, George Cruz, was an alcoholic who was violent and used to beat him. And he was passed to foster homes and family. But my sister Sacheen took what happened to him.”
In a separate interview, Orlandi agreed: “My father’s father, George, he was the alcoholic. My dad never drank. My dad never smoked. And you know, she also blasted him and said my father was mentally ill. My father was not mentally ill.”
As to Littlefeather’s claims she was taken from her “mentally ill” parents at age 3 and “fostered” by her white grandparents, Orlandi noted: “Their house was right next door. It was just like walking out the door to your neighbor’s house.”
When asked how their sister, who they knew by the nickname “Deb” growing up, came up with her “Indian” name, Orlandi recalled how the sisters all used to make their clothes in 4-H. The spools of thread and ribbon were made by a company called the Sasheen Ribbon Co. They suspect that this may have been the inspiration for Sacheen.
Littlefeather claimed the name was given to her by a member of the Navajo Nation (the largest tribe in the United States, located in Utah, Arizona and New Mexico) at Alcatraz. In 1969, American Indian activists took over the island and, as it was disused federal property, demanded it be given to them, citing treaties. Littlefeather claimed the name meant “Little Bear” in Navajo. It doesn’t. That would be “shush yazh.” It is also not the custom of Diné people, as Navajo call ourselves (I’m an enrolled citizen of the Navajo Nation) to name people after animals.
Furthermore, Littlefeather was never at Alcatraz, LaNada Warjack told me in an interview. The long-time Shoshone activist and Bay Area resident would know: As the president of the Native American students organization at UC Berkeley in 1968, she was one of the student leaders at Alcatraz. She lived on the island for the entire occupation spanning 18 months.
“We never really knew her until the Oscar night,” Warjack said. “We thought that was really cool. That same year she did a spread in Playboy magazine. We knew no Native would do that. Especially during the 70s …The last thing we as Native women wanted anyone to think of us was as sex objects.”
Neither sister knows where the name “Littlefeather” came from. Orlandi scoffed at her sister’s statements that she got the name from her father when she danced before him, holding a single feather aloft.
“That she danced in front of my father and always wore a feather in her hair, in her head? And that’s when my father called her ‘Littlefeather?’That’s another fantasy.”
News coverage of her burgeoning attempts to make a name for herself in the entertainment world hint at a possible reason for assuming a Native identity. About four months before Littlefeather appeared at the Oscars, on Sept. 28, 1972, legendary Chronicle columnist Herb Caen wrote a piece about a turn for the worse in her modeling career:
“Sacheen Littlefeather, the Bay Area Indian Princess, and nine other tribal beauties are sore at Hugh Hefner. Playboy ordered pictures of them, riding horseback nude in Woodside and other beauty spots, and then Hefner rejected the shots (by Mark Fraser and Mike Kornafel) as ‘not erotic enough.’ Why do them in the first place? ‘Well,’ explained Littlefeather ‘everybody says black is beautiful — we wanted to show that red is, too.’ ”
Like many aspiring actors, this was assuredly not how Littlefeather’s dream of stardom was supposed to go. But perhaps it was better than being ignored.
Cruz remembers Littlefeather’s desperate attempts to break into the industry. She recalls once meeting director Francis Ford Coppola as a 16-year-old high school student while visiting her sister in San Francisco. Littlefeather lived in a large, beautiful apartment with her husband in Pacific Heights. Littlefeather had spotted the director moving furniture into a house in her neighborhood. She approached him and got an invitation to come over for a visit.
Cruz recalls her big sister putting on “all this makeup on. And I said, ‘What are you doing?’ This man is just asking us to come over for, you know, casual. Just to hang out with people. So anyway, I was thinking, ‘Oh, brother.’ And then she brings her portfolio. I said, ‘Are you kidding me?’ ”
The sisters said that the toll of the lies told by their sister over the years was hard to bear. But they didn’t speak out, as they thought their sister’s fame would eventually dissipate. Now, they said, it is troubling to see Littlefeather “being venerated as a saint.”
Could their family have some distant drop of Indigenous blood from hundreds of years ago? It’s possible; many people of Mexican descent do. But Indigenous identity is more complicated than that. A U.S. citizen of distant French descent does not get to claim French citizenship. And it would be absurd for that person to wear a beret on stage at the Oscars and speak on behalf of the nation of France. The White Mountain Apache is a very specific tribe with very specific rules of membership. Falsely claiming its heritage, using it to become a spokesperson and relying on dangerous tropes about an abusive Indian father to bolster that fable did real damage.
Both Cruz and Orlandi learned of their big sister’s death via online news. Neither was invited to the funeral and did not know when it was taking place until a priest contacted them.
When asked if she thought Littlefeather’s life or career would have been better if she had never claimed to be American Indian, Orlandi demurred. “Sacheen did not like herself. She didn’t like being Mexican. So, yes, it was better for her that way to play someone else.”
“The best way that I could think of summing up my sister is that she created a fantasy,” her younger sister said. “She lived in a fantasy, and she died in a fantasy.”
Jacqueline Keeler is a Diné/Dakota writer living in Portland, Ore., and the author of “Standing Rock, the Bundy Movement, and the American Story of Sacred Lands.”
A state Supreme Court justice issued a split ruling Friday that found New York’s absentee ballot laws are partially unconstitutional, a decision that will hurl an element of disorder into the midterm election in which mail-in voting is already underway.
State Supreme Court Justice Dianne L. Freestone’s decision stopped short of overturning a change in Election Law that allows someone to vote by absentee ballot if they fear contracting COVID-19, a measure that she highly criticized but said could not be undone at this time.
Freestone’s ruling struck down a 2021 state law around the “canvassing” of absentee ballots. For now, the ruling will reinstate some of the laws that were in effect prior to last year’s changes, including allowing someone to vote in-person on Election Day to override any absentee ballot they may have submitted.
Republican officials contend that is an important provision because it enables a voter who learns something damning about a candidate before the election to change their vote.
The ruling also gives clearer ability for poll watchers, candidates and others to contest a ballot in the court, something that Republicans argued was curtailed under the 2021 law.
Freestone opinion noted that the COVID-19 excuse to vote by mail, which was passed into state law after voters rejected a no-excuse voting ballot proposition last year, presents an “Orwellian perpetual state of health emergency.” She described the measure as “cloaked in the veneer of ‘voter enfranchisement.'”
She said the Democrat’s argument that the coronavirus poses a current health risk is “replete with alarmist statistics.”
Legal challenges to the Biden administration’s mass student loan cancellation scheme faced multiple setbacks on Thursday, with Justice Amy Coney Barrett denying a conservative Wisconsin taxpayer group’s request the Supreme Court temporarily block the program and District Court Judge Henry Autrey for the Eastern District of Missouri dismissing a lawsuit brought by six Republican-led states seeking an injunction. Although Autrey—a George W. Bush appointee—agreed the states presented “important and significant challenges to the debt relief plan,” he held that they did not have standing to sue—and Barrett’s denial was for a similar reason. The ruling will allow debt forgiveness—for which more than 12 million Americans have already applied, according to the Biden administration—to start being processed as early as Sunday.
Citing the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued an order Thursday directing the Pentagon to establish new transportation allowances for service members and their dependents looking to travel to access “non-covered reproductive health care that is unavailable within the local area of a service member’s permanent duty station.” The order—which also seeks to establish a program to support Pentagon health care providers facing civil or criminal penalties for providing abortions—seeks to head off legal challenges by paying for travel expenses associated with an abortion, rather than for the abortion itself.
A three-judge panel on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Wednesday that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s unique funding mechanism—which was concocted by congressional Democrats a decade ago to circumvent the traditional appropriations process—violates the Constitution. “Congress’s decision to abdicate its appropriations power under the Constitution, i.e., to cede its power of the purse to the Bureau, violates the Constitution’s structural separation of powers,” the panel held. It’s unclear whether the CFPB plans to appeal the ruling.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted unanimously Thursday to recommend adding COVID-19 shots to the 2023 child and adult vaccination schedule. The panel can’t enforce its decision, but states and local jurisdictions often require its recommended shots for students entering daycare and school.
The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported Thursday that U.S. college enrollment dropped for the third straight year in 2022—down 1.1 percent from 2021—but at a slower pace, approaching pre-pandemic rates of decline. Highly selective schools saw a 5.6 percent decrease in freshman enrollment year-over-year, while community colleges, historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs), and primarily online institutions saw enrollment increases.
Ethiopia’s army has stepped up an offensive against rebel Tigrayan fighters, with thousands of soldiers gathering around the northern city of Axum after capturing three nearby towns. Diplomats have been negotiating the terms of peace talks—scheduled to begin in South Africa October 24—to stop the conflict, which re-escalated after a five-month humanitarian cease-fire ended in August. The fighting has killed more than 50,000 people, and famine and disease exacerbated by the war have killed hundreds of thousands more.
The average number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States declined about 17 percent over the past two weeks according to CDC data, while the average number of daily deaths attributed to the virus—a lagging indicator—fell 7.5 percent. About 20,700 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, down from approximately 22,200 two weeks ago.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial jobless claims—a proxy for layoffs—decreased by 12,000 week-over-week to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 last week. The measure is up from earlier this year, but it remains near historic lows, signaling the labor market—though cooling—continues to be tight.
We see that Timmy’s internal polls must show he needs help. So why not enlist the help of those in prison?
Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), running against Republican J.D. Vance for Ohio’s open United States Senate seat, once pledged to free a million inmates from prisons across the nation.
In 2019, while vying for his party’s presidential nomination in the Democrat primary, Ryan told the left-wing American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) that he would free half of all inmates sitting in U.S. prisons and jails if he were president.
During the same event, Ryan said he supports “eliminating” cash bail for suspects accused of crimes — a policy position that would mimic New York’s law that regularly frees from jail suspects accused of violent crimes, and Illinois’s upcoming law that abolishes cash bail altogether, set to free thousands of inmates accused of murder, burglary, and other crimes.
No one ( except immigration deniers ) believes that this administrations border policies are working. But a new low has been hit. President Joe Biden’s administration reportedly pressured El Paso, Texas, Mayor Oscar Leeser (D) not to declare a state of emergency over illegal immigration, even as thousands arrive in the small city every few days.
At least three of the El Paso City Council’s eight members have urged Mayor Oscar Leeser to issue an emergency declaration in response to the thousands of migrants who’ve filled the city’s shelters and are being housed in local hotels, sources familiar with the matter said. [Emphasis added]
But Leeser admitted during a private phone conversation last month that he’d been directed otherwise by the Biden administration, one of the officials told The Post. [Emphasis added]
“He told me the White House asked him not to,” Council member Claudia Rodriguez said. [Emphasis added]
Last week, about 2,100 border crossers and illegal aliens were arriving every day in El Paso. Since April, the city has seen more than 62,000 border crossers and illegal aliens apprehended. The figure does not include those who successfully evaded Border Patrol.
During the course of their discussion, Bancel admitted that COVID-19 is going to be very similar to the seasonal flu. He also suggested that persons aged 50 and older as well as those who are in vulnerable categories should consider receiving a booster shot.
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel compares COVID-19 to the seasonal flu and believes young, healthy people should decide for themselves if they want an annual booster. Bancel maintains, that older people 50+, and those in vulnerable categories should definitely consider a booster shot. pic.twitter.com/7QowinbkMq
Dr. Paul Offit, MD, a top vaccine expert and FDA adviser has warned last month that there is insufficient evidence to recommend the new booster shot for healthy young adults and said it could carry risks.
Dr. Offit: “When you’re asking people to get a vaccine, I think there has to be clear evidence of benefit. And we’re not going to have clinical studies, obviously, before this launches, but you’d like to have at least human data on people getting this vaccine. You see a clear and dramatic increase in neutralizing antibiotics, and then at least you have a correlate of protection against BA4, BA5. Because if you don’t have that, if there’s not clear evidence of benefit, then it’s not fair [to ask people to take a risk]. The benefits should be clear
The Democratic Politicians are facing a potential shellacking in November and they know it. They are desperate to come up with a winning narrative to try and stem their potential losses.
So what is Obama proposing to help Democrats do this? He’s telling them to stop focusing on woke issues so much because they are alienating people and hurting them politically
In a podcast, Obama is literally telling Democrats to stop focusing on identity politics because people are tired of getting lectured that they are the bad guy, and it’s causing them ‘difficulties’:
I think where we get into trouble sometimes is when we try to suggest that because some groups historically have been victimized more, that somehow they have a status that’s different than other people, and we’re going around scolding folks if they don’t use exactly the right phrase; that identity politics becomes the principle lens through which we view our various political challenges.
To me, I think that for a lot of average folks that ends up feeling as if you’re not speaking to me and my concerns…
The less we’re leaning into an argument that says ‘we’re deserving of consideration and you guys are the problem’ – however you want to frame ‘you guys’ – yeah I think most people don’t want to be lectured to in that way and I think that can cause us some difficulties.
Democrats really turned on the woke-ism in the 2020 election and they haven’t looked back since.
But now that they are about to lose hold of their power in Congress, the prevailing wisdom is to dial it back so they can win elections again.
That may sound like a good strategy but I’m afraid that rabbit is out of the hat and it ain’t going back in. Democrat higher-ups are far too entrenched in wokeism to go back now. It would probably split the Democrat party if they tried.
But even so, it’s amazing that this is what their most popular leader in modern times is telling them to do, especially when he pushed them all in this direction.
Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinct advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.
The poll shows that 49% of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican on Nov. 8 to represent them in Congress, compared with 45% who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a 1-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to 3 points, not the 4 points that the rounded figures imply.)
With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44% from 36% — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a 2-1 margin.
Both Democrats and Republicans have largely coalesced behind their own party’s congressional candidates. But the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage-point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a 3-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans.
The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.
The survey showed that the economy remained a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion.
“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,” said Robin Ackerman, a 37-year-old Democrat and mortgage loan officer who lives in New Castle, Delaware, and is planning to vote Republican this fall.
Ackerman said she disagreed “1,000%” with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and erase the national right to an abortion. “But that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision,” she said of her fall vote. “I’m more worried about other things.”
The first midterm election of a presidency has been historically challenging for the party in power, and Democrats are approaching this one saddled with a president who has a disapproval rating of 58%, including 63% of independent voters.
Democrats have no margin for error in 2022 — with the slimmest of majorities in the House and a 50-50 Senate, where the flipping of a single seat in that chamber would deliver a Republican majority. Republicans have vowed to curb President Joe Biden’s agenda and launch a series of investigations into his administration and family if they take charge of either the House or Senate.
The added challenge for Democrats is the intensity of the electorate’s displeasure with Biden: The poll showed that 45% of likely voters strongly disapproved of the job that Biden was doing, and 90% of those voters planned to back a Republican for Congress this fall.
Democrats were actually pulling in the support of 50% of voters who said they “somewhat disapprove” of Biden. That is good news for Democrats — for now.
It is also a perilous position to be in, because those voters are ripe to be won over by Republicans who are unleashing millions of dollars in ads to link Democratic candidates to an unpopular president.
Democrats have essentially maxed out support among voters who support Biden, winning 88% of them, according to the poll. But Republicans have room to grow among voters who don’t like Biden.
The issues that mattered most to voters aligned heavily with partisan preferences. Voters who were focused on the economy and inflation favored Republicans over Democrats 64% to 30%. Democrats held a 20-percentage-point advantage among voters who cared the most about any other issue.
The economy was the most pressing issue for voters in both the July poll and now. The challenge for Democrats is that the share of voters focused on economic matters is bigger now.
“It’s all about cost,” said Gerard Lamoureux, a 51-year-old Democratic retiree in Newtown, Connecticut, who is planning to vote Republican this fall. “The price of gas and groceries are through the roof. And I want to eat healthy, but it’s cheaper for me to go to McDonald’s and get a little meal than it is to cook dinner.”
Biden has repeatedly tried to put a positive spin on the economy and has noted that inflation is a worldwide problem. “Our economy is strong as hell,” he said Saturday at a stop at a Baskin-Robbins ice cream shop in Portland, Oregon.
In July, in the wake of shootings in Uvalde, Texas, and Highland Park, Illinois, and the passage of the first gun legislation in decades in Congress, 9% of likely voters named guns as the top issue. But that number collapsed to 1% by October — dropping from a virtual tie for third as the most important issue to outside the top 10. The vast majority of voters who named guns as the top issue over the summer said they preferred Democratic control of Congress.
While the share of voters focused on guns declined, those who identified abortion as the top issue remained flat, at 5%. There is a sizable gender split on the issue’s significance: 9% of women rated it as the top issue compared with just 1% of men.
The poll was the latest evidence of the growing class divide between the two parties, in terms of both Biden’s standing and the race for Congress. Biden’s base of support is increasingly shrinking to urban, well-educated enclaves, with Black voters, city dwellers and those with at least a bachelor’s degree among the few demographic groups where a plurality of likely voters think he is doing well.
Among likely Hispanic voters, a narrow 48% plurality disapproved of Biden even as 60% said they would vote for congressional Democrats this fall — one of a few groups, including younger voters, who appeared to separate their frustration with the White House from their voting plans.
College was a particularly strong dividing line. Among those with a bachelor’s degree, Democrats held a 13-point advantage. Among those without one, Republicans held a 15-point edge.
In taking over the House in 2018 and winning the Senate and White House in 2020, the winning Democratic coalition during the Donald Trump presidency relied on a significant gender gap and on winning women by a wide margin.
But the poll showed that Republicans had entirely erased what had been an 11-point edge for Democrats among women last month in 2022 congressional races to a statistical tie in October.
The survey tested Trump’s favorability rating, as well. He had a 52% unfavorability rating, better than Biden’s 58% job disapproval rating.
In a hypothetical 2024 rematch, Trump led Biden in the poll by 1 percentage point. Among women, Biden was ahead of Trump by only 4 points, compared with the margin of more than 10 points that Biden had in the 2020 election, according to studies of the national electorate for that election.
Today, the mood of the nation is decidedly sour. A strong majority of likely voters, 64%, sees the country as moving in the wrong direction, compared with just 24% ( White Progressives, Undocumented, and welfare blacks? )who see the nation as on the right track. Even the share of Democratic likely voters who believe the nation is headed in the right direction fell by 6 percentage points since September, although it is above the low point of the summer.
“Everybody’s hurting right now,” said David Neiheisel, a 48-year-old insurance salesperson and Republican in Indianapolis. “Inflation, interest rates, the cost of gas, the cost of food, the cost of my property taxes, my utilities — I mean, everything’s gone up astronomically, and it’s going to collapse.”